U.S. Autos & Mobility: EV Report Card: Halftime report

Research evidence excerpt

U.S. Autos & Mobility: EV Report Card: Halftime report

Equity Research

15 July 2026

U.S. Autos & Mobility

EV Report Card: Halftime report

Key takes: 1. YTD'26 EV penetration tracking down vs FY25,

dragged by lower China volumes, partial offset from stronger

Europe; 2. China EV pen remains at record high in June, U.S. Autos & Mobility NEUTRAL

though sales volumes remain down y/y; 3. June EV pen likely U.S. Autos & Mobility

the strongest result of the year, strength across 3 main Dan Levy

regions +1 212 526 3212 dan.levy@barclays.com

BCI, US

2026 Halftime Report - Global penetration dragged by China, offset by Europe Joshua Young

strength +1 212 526 3280

With 1H26 complete, it's worth a look at how the year is tracking: jryoung@barclays.com

• Global: YTD'26 (through May) penetration of 22.4% is tracking below '25 at 25.2%. The y/y

decline has largely been driven by China as their lower EV sales volumes have contributed

less to total global penetration vs in 2025. Europe is a y/y tailwind, while the US has been a

drag. We expect continued penetration increases through 2H.

• China: Based on reported CPCA data through June, YTD'26 penetration of 54.0% is tracking

in line with FY25 (54.0%). 2Q penetration (62.4%) was at record highs, offsetting the EV

weakness seen in 1Q (45.1%). 1H26 penetration is up ~4pts y/y vs 1H25.

While EV penetration is strong, overall sales volumes in China have been weak in '26. 1H26

retail NEV sales were down 14% y/y vs 1H25, while total retail sales were down 20% y/y. Retail

sales weakness was across both 1Q (-17% y/y) and 2Q (-22% y/y). We've unpacked drivers of

the weaker Chinese market in prior notes.

We expect continued NEV volume growth through the back half of the year, though

penetration could be more flattish.