European Chemicals & Ingredients: Highlighting El Niño and fertiliser risks to Cocoa supply

Research evidence excerpt

European Chemicals & Ingredients: Highlighting El Niño and fertiliser risks to Cocoa supply

Equity Research

15 July 2026

European Chemicals & Ingredients

Highlighting El Niño and fertiliser

risks to Cocoa supply

A new Barclays Sustainable Investing framework suggests European Chemicals & Ingredients

cocoa is among the crops most exposed to a combination of NEGATIVE

fertiliser market disruption and a potential Super El Niño. NEUTRALEuropean Consumer Staples

Rising cocoa bean prices could delay end-market volume European Chemicals & Ingredients

Alex Sloanerecovery as well as BARN’s ROIC inflection and deleverage

aims. +44alexander.sloane@barclays.com(0)20 3555 0645

Barclays, UK

A new framework to identify agricultural risk hotspots Katie Richards

Barclays Sustainable Investing team combines three factors into a single yield-sensitivity +44 (0)20 3555 0315

kathryn.richards@barclays.comframework: (1) the likelihood of fertiliser supply disruption, (2) crop-level dependence on

fertiliser inputs and (3) historical yield sensitivity during the 2015/16 Super El Niño. The result is

a relative screening tool designed to identify which crop-country combinations appear most Setu Sharda

vulnerable if fertiliser disruption and adverse weather occur simultaneously ahead of the 2027 + 91 (0)22 6175 1934

setu.sharda@barclays.comgrowing season. see The fertiliser and weather risk nexus, 13 July.

The framework is not intended to predict future yields. Rather, it highlights where risks appear Anil Shenoy

most concentrated across global agriculture. The team notes that agricultural vulnerability is +91 (0)22 6175 2487

highly uneven, with risks clustered in specific crops and geographies rather than distributed anil.shenoy@barclays.com

broadly across global food systems. Barclays, UK