European Equity Strategy: Earnings – Q2 bar raised, but Europe's FY26 recovery on track

Research evidence excerpt

European Equity Strategy: Earnings – Q2 bar raised, but Europe's FY26 recovery on track

Equity Research

15 July 2026

European Equity Strategy

Earnings – Q2 bar raised, but SIGNATURE

Europe's FY26 recovery on track

13% & 26% Q2 EPS growth est. for EU & US set a high bar,

though lower ex Energy & Tech at ~5%. High positioning a Emmanuel Cau, CFA

risk for AI winners, yet Europe FY26 EPS is tracking the +44 (0)20 3134 0475 emmanuel.cau@barclays.com

strongest growth since 2022. A cushion against higher oil/ Barclays, UK

rates & support to the broadening trade. Energy tactically Magesh Kumar Chandrasekaran, CFA

attractive. +44magesh.kumarchandrasekaran@barclays.com(0)20 3134 5983

Barclays, UK

High bar, but largely due to Tech and Energy. Q2 EPS growth is forecast at 13% in Europe and Emmanuel Makonga

26% in the US, though these figures are flattered by Energy and Tech. Excluding both, +44 (0)20 7773 2593

consensus estimates are much lower, at ~5%. Even so, stabilising oil prices and resilient activity emmanuel.makonga@barclays.com

exit rates point to a decent Q2 earnings season, with FX headwinds easing for Europe. Pre- Barclays, UK

announcements are positive for a second consecutive quarter, the first such occurrence since Arihanth Bohra Jain

2021. Tech/Semis' earnings will be in particular focus, with investors looking for reassurance on +91 (0)22 6175 1406

the AI capex outlook, as well as signs of a profitability boost for the AI spenders. Recent CTA/HF arihanth.bohrajain@barclays.com

de-grossing is helpful, but overall positioning remains elevated on the space, likely to result in Barclays, UK

some travel-and-arrive pattern and high dispersion.

Europe's FY26 estimates keep rising, with breadth improving. EPS revisions in Europe