Rio Tinto plc: Pilbara Powers Through, Copper Clouds Persist

Research evidence excerpt

Rio Tinto plc: Pilbara Powers Through, Copper Clouds Persist

during some 52 Week range GBP 83.25-43.33

quarters from 2H26-2028 due to major capital projects at the ports, reducing Rio's capability

to catch up on seasonality impacts. We note Q4-25 for example saw Rio's shipments

annualising at 365mt. Hence we leave our FY26 forecast unchanged for now.

• A tougher quarter in copper: copper production missed consensus by 1% reflecting KUC

geotechnical issues, concentrator maintenance and lower grades. A rebuild of Kennecott's

flash furnace for 75 days in H2 will see Rio selling matte rather than cathode, but it is

Source: IDC

expected to build some stockpiles for processing in 2027. Oyu Tolgoi also had planned mill Link to Barclays Live for interactive charting

maintenance in Q2 (production -5% QoQ). The main news at OT was the Government of

Mongolia agreed to commence work on resolving the Entrée licence transfer for Panel 1. While

European Metals & Mining

this remains in progress, Rio will continue to advance Panels 0 and 2 North followed by Panel Amos Fletcher, CFA

2 South. The result of this is likely to see higher maintenance capex ($300-400m p.a.) over the +44 (0)20 7773 2225

next 3-4yrs due to the requirement to develop into Panel 2 South which is further from Panel amos.fletcher@barclays.com

0, as well as lower grades than planned. Earlier in the quarter it was reported Rio had agreed Barclays, UK

to reduce the management fee it charges OT by 50% and to reduce the carried interest loan Ian Rossouw, CFA

+44 (0)20 3555 2620

Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies ian.rossouw@barclays.com

covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a Barclays, UK