Australian Economic Comment "Business conditions steady, but prices..."

Research evidence excerpt

Australian Economic Comment "Business conditions steady, but prices..."

Global Research

14 July 2026ab

Australian Economic Comment Economics

AustraliaBusiness conditions steady, but prices retrace.

Consumer sentiment bounces but still weak. George Tharenou

Economist

george.tharenou@ubs.com

+61-2-9324 3520

Stephen Wu

Business conditions in Jun-26 stabilise (+3.0, after +2.8); implying real GDP Economist

should moderate but remain decent ~2% y/y. stephen.wu@ubs.com

+61-2-9324 2283

Selling prices retrace sharply; but wages spike on award wage decision.

Izzy Lowe

Consumer sentiment in Jul-26 bounced +4.1% m/m, to 83.9; but remains Associate Economist

soft & implies real consumption could slow sharply. izzy.lowe@ubs.com

+61-2-9324 2651

House price expectations retraced, & UBS now expect prices to fall over ~5%.

Tatiana Bodrova

RBA face a policy dilemma: but UBS still expect RBA to hike 25bps in Aug-26. Associate Economist

tatiana.bodrova@ubs.com

Business conditions in Jun-26 stabilised; but still slightly below average +61-29-324 2645

Business conditions (NAB monthly business survey) in Jun-26 ~stabilised (+3.0; after

+2.8), albeit still a slight -0.4 standard deviations below average. Business conditions

historically imply real GDP should moderate over coming quarters, but remain solid

around 2% y/y. Meanwhile, business confidence recovered further (-5.0; after -14.0),

but remains weak; & implies downside risk to business investment.

Selling prices retrace further to 2.4%, after 3.7%; but oil recently rebounded

Selling prices in Jun-26 retraced further to 2.4% annualised; after already moderating to

3.7% annualised. Purchase costs also pulled back further (to 8.0% after ~10.0%), albeit

remain above average. Together, this indicates upstream price pressures are easing.