European Economic Perspectives "Cautious, depressed, but resilient –..."

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European Economic Perspectives "Cautious, depressed, but resilient –..."

Global Research

14 July 2026ab

European Economic Perspectives Economics

Europe including UKCautious, depressed, but resilient – What's

ahead for the Eurozone consumer? Franziska Fischer

Economist

franziska.fischer@ubs.com

+41-44-239 2054

The third major shock in six years - How resilient is the Eurozone consumer? Gerry Fowler

When the Ukraine war started and energy prices soared, European consumers suffered Strategist

their largest sentiment shock on record, just two years after the pandemic. The recovery gerry.fowler@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 5490

has been slow, uneven, and in many places incomplete. Nevertheless, the state of the

European consumer has been stronger than commonly perceived, supported by low Reinhard Cluse

unemployment, solid real wage growth, and high household savings. But now, inflation Economist

has been rising again. The peak in energy prices may be behind but the indirect effects reinhard.cluse@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 6722

are likely still ahead. A key question for assessing the consumption impact of the latest

energy shock is whether the consumer has sufficiently rebuilt buffers to withstand the Felix Huefner

renewed purchasing power loss. Importantly, these buffers extend beyond financial Economist

resources and include psychological resilience – such as tolerance for uncertainty. felix.huefner@ubs.com

+49-69-1369 8280

Deep dive into European consumer dynamics and stock implications Anna Titareva

In this series, we take a deep dive into the European consumer. We highlight

anna.titareva@ubs.com

consumption patterns across countries and consumption types; we outline consumption +44-20-7568 5083

drivers such as income and wages; we assess savings dynamics – all to update our