Astra International "Previewing Q2 results and H226 outlook" (Buy) Putra

Research evidence excerpt

Astra International "Previewing Q2 results and H226 outlook" (Buy) Putra

ckel impairment

UBS Cons.

charges are expected from associate NIC. 2) We expect industry car sales to improve 12/26E 653 736

HoH in H226E, supported by seasonally stronger business activity and new model 12/27E 845 817

launches. This should spur overall lending demand. 3) In H226, we expect competition 12/28E 976 862

to intensify as BYD's local plant ramps up, with Astra's promotional discounts likely

staying elevated (but manageable) amid soft purchasing power. Igor Putra

Analyst

igor.putra@ubs.com

Emerging structural trends in the automotive sector

+62-21-2554 7033

1) Commercial vehicle (CV) sales rose 39% YoY in H126, outgrowing passenger vehicle

John Lam, CFA(+9% YoY), suggesting cuts to the government's free meals program (MBG) are less

positive for CV sales. 2) We see BEV and HEV market share beginning to normalize as john-za.lam@ubs.com

the pace of new model launches stabilizes. 3) Honda's car market share has declined to +852-2971 6358

5% YTD, the lowest level since 2012. We see dealerships shifting from Honda to

Kohei Takahashi

Chinese brands in major cities as a structural trend. 4) Export volumes remain solid, with

YTD levels tracking above 2025 run-rates. 5) Low-end segments remain weak and kohei.takahashi@ubs.com

should remain so over the next 12 months given the likely rising interest rates regime. +81-3-5208 6172

However, weakness in the low-cost green car segment appears to be stabilizing, with

market share of industry car sales now at 13%, vs 15%/20% in 2025/2024.

Valuation: Reiterate Buy rating and SOTP-based PT of Rp7,380

We flag Astra’s re-rating potential on below-peer 5-6x 2026-27E PE, above-peer ROE