South African Banks "What's up in credit and funding?" Potgieter

Research evidence excerpt

South African Banks "What's up in credit and funding?" Potgieter

Global Research

14 July 2026ab

South African Banks Equities

South AfricaWhat's up in credit and funding?

Banks

Stephan Potgieter, CFA

This is our analysis of the monthly balance sheet data of the SA banks Analyst

We analyse SA Reserve Bank data collected from South African banking entities (so- stephan.potgieter@ubs.com

called BA900s) published on a monthly basis with a two-month lag – this one for May +44-20-7568 8162

2026. A spreadsheet with the underlying data is available on request.

What stands out?

It remains a corporate-driven cycle with corporate credit growth of ~10% yoy, double

the rate of growth of retail credit (~5% yoy). Within retail credit, the bright spot is

vehicle finance (+10.7% yoy) as vehicle sales trends remained strong, driven by more

affordable vehicles as Chinese brands gained traction. Our macro team remains

constructive on the outlook for South Africa in H2, as we see a resilient fiscal outlook,

having revised our 10 year bond yield forecast down to 8.1% from 8.5% by end-2026

(which should support SA bank valuations).

Key industry trends

Retail credit growth remained at mid-single digits (+5.2% yoy), although this datapoint

is just before the rate hike of 25bps at the end of May, likely close to peak growth in this

cycle, in our view. The risk of another rate hike this year remains, which could weigh on

retail credit growth, although we forecast 3x 25bps rate cuts in 2027, providing support

into next year. Core corporate credit growth remained at a relatively robust 10% yoy

with private sector term loan growth remaining strong at 15.6% yoy.

Bank-specific highlights ahead of 1H26 results

We continue to watch the deposit trends of new entrants, a key indicator of traction.