First Read: Ashmore Group PLC "Q4:26 Update: AUMs inline with consensus;..."

Research evidence excerpt

First Read: Ashmore Group PLC "Q4:26 Update: AUMs inline with consensus;..."

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation 0.4%

Forecast dividend yield 7.9%

Forecast stock return 8.2%

Market return assumption 9.2%

Forecast excess return -1.0%

Company Description

Ashmore is a UK asset manager specialising in EM investments, with a focus on debt

products. The company manages six main investment strategies: external debt, local currency

debt, corporate debt, a blended debt product, equities and alternatives. Ashmore was listed

on the London Stock Exchange in 2006 and now has a global network with offices in 11

locations.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

We value Ashmore using a two-stage discounted-cash-flow model. There are a number of

risks facing Ashmore. The most important, in our view, is performance risk, which describes

the ability of the active asset manager to beat its fund performance benchmarks. In a scenario

where Ashmore is unable to beat its fund performance benchmarks, the firm may lose client

flows. Investors tend to base their asset management allocation decisions on the one-year,

three-year and five-year track records of the funds, so a weakening performance record

would have a negative impact on client flow market share and, ultimately, the bottom-line of

the asset manager. Ashmore also faces the risk of increased regulation on its businesses. This

regulation can come in many forms, including how the funds are marketed, how they are

managed, the disclosures surrounding the funds and the fees related to the fund and how

research costs are booked. In our view, the greatest risk to the asset managers would be how

research is paid for by the asset managers. Ashmore also faces reputational risks. If there is