Avanza "Strong Q2: Are positive revenue trends sustainable, and can cost..."

Research evidence excerpt

Avanza "Strong Q2: Are positive revenue trends sustainable, and can cost..."

Avanza UBS Research

Q2 Beat, Key questions on Cost Growth and Outlook

Avanza Q2:26 results were 4% above consensus but in line with UBSe expectations.

Revenue was a 3% consensus beat, in line with UBSe, offset by costs 2% higher than

expected. Beat vs. consensus was spread across Net Brokerage Income, Currency related

income and Net Interest Income, with the latter the most significant beat. Other income

(including Avanza Markets) was significantly lower than expectations.

Positive Momentum in Trading Activity

Figure 1: YoY growth in net brokerage income reflected higher trading activity

and margins (Net brokerage income bridge SEK mn)YoY

Net brokerage income came in ~4%

better than consensus, in line with

UBS expectations and increased 26%

YoY but fell 1.5% QoQ. The

sequential trend saw fewer trading

days offset modestly improved levels

of trading activity whilst YoY it was

supported by positive moves in all

drivers

Source:Company reports, UBS research

Net brokerage income decreased 1% QoQ, driven by fewer trading days: the number of

brokerage-generating notes declined 2%. Gross brokerage income per brokerage-

generating turnover rose to 11.0bps (10.6bps in Q1), due to a higher share of foreign

trading and lower turnover per note within the "Fixed Price" brokerage class. Foreign

trading accounted for 31% (26% in Q1) of the brokerage-generating turnover. The

share of brokerage income from Private Banking and Pro was unchanged at 26%. We

have increased our net brokerage income forecasts only modestly, despite the beat vs.

expectations, due to our caution on the sustainability of positive trends into H2 2026

and beyond.

Figure 2: Trading activity improved 1% in Q2 vs. Q1 (number of trades per