Boot Barn Holdings Inc "UBS Evidence Lab inside: 1Q27 Preview: We See..."

Research evidence excerpt

Boot Barn Holdings Inc "UBS Evidence Lab inside: 1Q27 Preview: We See..."

Powered by Lab Global14 JulyResearch2026ab Evidence UBS YES

Boot Barn Holdings Inc Equities

AmericasUBS Evidence Lab inside: 1Q27 Preview: We See

A Balanced Upside/Downside Skew Retailers, Apparel

12-month rating Buy *

12m price target US$272.00BOOT's 2QTD sales growth update likely determines the stock move:

Our checks suggest trends over BOOT's 1Q27 were solid and we forecast BOOT delivers

a 4c Q1 EPS beat and raises its $8.21-$8.64 FY27 EPS guidance by a similar amount. We Price (13 Jul 2026) US$164.32

doubt this type of guidance drives sentiment to move much since the market expects a RIC: BOOT.N BBG: BOOT US

similar outcome as we do, in our view. Plus, we believe the stock's move will hinge on

BOOT's 2QTD comp growth update. Our view is 2QTD trends have decelerated as BOOT Trading data and key metrics

laps sequentially more difficult compares. However, we believe the market has a similar 52-wk range US$207.98-135.16

view. Plus, trends until BOOT reports are critical, and we don't have a strong view on Market cap. US$5.05b

how the next ~3 weeks will play out. Thus, we see a balanced upside/downside skew Shares o/s 30.8m (COM)

around the event. The options market is currently pricing in a +/- 9.7% move over Free float 100%

earnings, in-line with its 9.7% avg. move. We agree with the options market's view. Avg. daily volume ('000) 207

Avg. daily value (m) US$33.7

We believe sentiment around BOOT is mixed: Common s/h equity (03/27E) US$1.53b

On one hand, UBS Quant team's crowding data shows BOOT is slightly long crowded vs. P/BV (03/27E) 3.2x

peers and its history (Figs. 6-7). Plus, BOOT's short interest has fallen ~65 bps since it Net debt to EBITDA (03/27E) NM

reported Q4 EPS to 9.1%.