U.S. Food Distribution "Will This Quarter Deliver A Win? C 2Q'26 Preview" Carden

Research evidence excerpt

U.S. Food Distribution "Will This Quarter Deliver A Win? C 2Q'26 Preview" Carden

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U.S. Food Distribution Equities

AmericasWill This Quarter Deliver A Win? C 2Q'26

Preview Retailers, Broadline

Mark Carden

Analyst

mark.carden@ubs.com

A largely resilient consumer likely supported healthy results among the food +1-212-713 3218

distributors

Michael Lasser

We think foodservice distributors are likely to report solid results, as consumers Analyst

continued to spend on food away from home despite elevated fuel prices. Commentary michael.lasser@ubs.com

from SYY and USFD at a June 2 industry conference suggested that trends remained +1-212-713 2440

resilient part way through C 2Q. Further, we think major sporting events in June gave Mathew Rothway

consumers plenty of reasons to boost their meal occasions. That said, recent headlines Analyst

about conflict flaring up in the Middle East are a reminder that risks remain. While mathew.rothway@ubs.com

national average gas prices reached a peak in May, Black Box restaurant traffic data +1-212-713 5000

suggests things didn't get incrementally worse on a sequential basis in C 2Q. For the Dan Silverstein

moment, it appears the consumer is managing through the pressure and continuing to Analyst

find occasions to spend. Perhaps more of a factor for the distributors is the trajectory of daniel.silverstein@ubs.com

diesel prices and the extent their various exposures will have on their earnings outlook. +1-212-713 2459

This could bring some downside risk as tensions in the region have increased again. We Sachin Verma

evaluate key debates, datapoints, and our outlooks for the subsector ahead of C 2Q'26 Associate Analyst

earnings. We raise our price targets for CHEF and PFGC.