U.S. Apartment REITs "The Home Stretch?" Goldsmith

Research evidence excerpt

U.S. Apartment REITs "The Home Stretch?" Goldsmith

Global Research

14 July 2026ab

U.S. Apartment REITs Equities

AmericasThe Home Stretch?

Real Estate

Michael Goldsmith

Our take: Apartment fundamentals are stabilizing, but the recovery remains Analyst

uneven across markets michael.goldsmith@ubs.com

We see a widening divergence in Apartment REIT fundamentals heading into 2Q'26 +1-212-713 2951

earnings, with momentum increasingly favoring Coastal markets. RealPage and CoStar Ami Probandt

data point to healthy, seasonally consistent rent growth across Coastal REITs through Analyst

early July. In contrast, the Sunbelt appears to be rolling over earlier than typical, ami.probandt@ubs.com

suggesting a more challenged near-term trajectory. This view is reinforced by our recent +1-212-713 2078

expert call that highlighted persistent concessions and a highly competitive leasing Justin Haasbeek

environment in the Sunbelt resulting in weaker pricing power. Moreover, this is evident Associate Analyst

in June RealPage data, where sequential new lease growth for CPT and MAA trailed justin.haasbeek@ubs.com

historical norms. As positives, we expect renewal strength and low turnover to provide +1-212-713 2014

some earnings stability. At the same time, share repurchases were not embedded in Connor Mitchell

guidance and could be a tailwind to 2Q'26 FFO. Associate Analyst

connor.mitchell@ubs.com

+1-212-649 8246

Looking ahead, a key question is if new lease spreads in 2H'26 can close the gap to

historical levels. This would have the dual benefit of providing evidence of stabilizing Anna O'Neil

pricing power while also supporting 2027 earn-in. Easing supply and favorable Associate Analyst

anna.oneil@ubs.com

comparisons (2H’25 blends of 0.4% vs. 1H’25 of 1.5%) are tailwinds, but muted job