LatAm Oil & Gas "LightHouse: PBR, YPF, Brazil O&G, Fuel Dist. (2x), Global..."

Research evidence excerpt

LatAm Oil & Gas "LightHouse: PBR, YPF, Brazil O&G, Fuel Dist. (2x), Global..."

or US$0.8-

1.1bn under YPF’s 75% stake). Based on our 2026E EBITDA estimate, YPF is currently

trading at 3.6x EV/EBITDA, which would narrow to 3.5x for “YPF ex-YPF Luz” under

the implied valuation from the offer above.

Brazil O&G: Oil industry considers new legal actions against export tax

extension

Valor reported that O&G companies are considering new legal actions against the

extension of the 12% tax on gross revenues from oil exports, arguing that the

government’s rationale of offsetting the domestic impacts of the Middle East

conflict has weakened following the decision to maintain the measure through an

administrative act. According to the report, companies view the extension as

reinforcing the tax’s revenue-raising nature, while Ministry of Finance data indicate

the measure generated R$1.05bn in revenues between March and May. Last week,

the government issued a decree through Camex extending the tax for an additional

two months, shortly before the expiration of MP 1,340/2026, which originally

created the measure.

We view the news as a direct reaction from the oil industry to the extension of the

export tax. The prospect of new legal challenges underscores companies’ efforts to

mitigate the measure’s impact on cash flows and profitability, particularly in a

context of oil price volatility. If successful, these actions could help improve

financial conditions for exporters and reduce the tax burden on the sector. In

addition to judicial measures, companies may also benefit from parallel efforts on

the legislative front. Members of Rio de Janeiro’s congressional delegation have

backed a Legislative Decree Bill seeking to overturn the tax, although the proposal