China CRO Sector "H126 preview: top-line growth remains intact" Chen

Research evidence excerpt

China CRO Sector "H126 preview: top-line growth remains intact" Chen

China CRO Sector UBS Research

Figure 2: Our current estimates and VA consensus

Our cu rrent e

stima tes and V A conse nsus

Source: Company data, Visible Alpha, UBS-S estimates. Note: We use recurring net profit for Tigermed and adjusted non-IFRS net profit for the other four companies.

Figure 3: CRO Q126 new orders, backlog status and 2026 guidance

CRO Q1 26 new orders , backlog sta tus and 20 26 guid

ance

Source: Company data, UBS-S

Results previews and estimate changes

Wuxi AppTec: CDMO momentum continues; upside to guidance

We continue to expect Wuxi AppTec to deliver strong Q2/H126 results, mainly driven by

TIDES, where management has guided for c40% YoY sales growth despite Q126 being

up 6.1% YoY. We also see continued strength in small molecules, helped by the sales

ramp-up of a range of products, such as oral GLP-1, supporting recurring revenue

growth visibility. Our key focus heading into the results will be whether management

raises full-year guidance with the interim results; the company previously indicated that

it was actively looking for such opportunities. Our current revenue estimate implies

recurring revenue growth of 23.7% YoY, above the prior company guidance range of

18–22%. On policy, management has indicated a limited expected impact from 1260H

inclusion. We also highlight that WuXi AppTec has hedged a major portion of its 2026

FX exposure; this should partly mitigate CNY appreciation headwinds, although

management still sees FX pressure continuing; in addition, the H2 drag potentially

would be less moderate than in H126.

We lift our estimates of small molecule CDMO growth from 18% YoY to 20% YoY,

leading to slightly higher 2026-28E revenue.