First Read: Novartis "Upsizes abelacimab P3 trial in atrial fibrillation"

Research evidence excerpt

First Read: Novartis "Upsizes abelacimab P3 trial in atrial fibrillation"

Global Research

13 July 2026ab

First Read

EquitiesNovartis

Upsizes abelacimab P3 trial in atrial fibrillation Switzerland

Pharmaceuticals

12-month rating Neutral

Novartis has posted an update for its LILAC-TIMI 76 Phase 3 clinical trial of abelacimab

Factor XI inhibitor for the treatment of atrial fibrillation for patients intolerant to DOACs. 12m price target CHF116.00

Completion date pushed to 30 December 2027 (from 31 August 2026)

Price (13 Jul 2026) CHF124.58

Trial scaled up to 2,500 participants (from 1,900)

RIC: NOVN.S BBG: NOVN SW

UBS view:

Trading data and key metrics

Novartis acquired abelacimab with the acquisition of Anthos Therapeutics in February

2026 for $925m upfront and a potential total purchase price of $3.1bn. At 4Q25 results, 52-wk range CHF130.50-91.55

Novartis pushed the timing for the P3 readout to 2027 from 2H26E and called out Market cap. CHF238b/US$293b

expected filing in 2028E. These changes on ct.gov now underpin this changed timeline. Shares o/s 1,908m (REG)

We see the scale-up in patients as most notable, suggesting that the event rate has not Free float 82%

met the company's original expectations. UBS Pharma Values assumes 60% probability Avg. daily volume ('000) 2,759

of $2bn peak sales potential in the DOAC intolerant patient population. Our NPV is Avg. daily value (m) CHF328.3

0.8% of Novartis total. The ultimate peak sales potential of abelacimab is highly Common s/h equity (12/26E) US$47.2b

dependent on upcoming data from competitor oral Factor XI inhibitors in AF. Milvexian P/BV (12/26E) 6.1x

P3 data are due towards the end of 2026E. Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) 1.5x

EPS (UBS, diluted) (USD)

UBS Cons.

12/26E 8.33 8.64

12/27E 9.20 9.67

12/28E 10.38 10.58