Raiffeisen Bank Intl "Improving momentum" (Buy) Nemes

Research evidence excerpt

Raiffeisen Bank Intl "Improving momentum" (Buy) Nemes

should come from further

From To % ch Cons.

potential inorganic growth, in our view, given the improved organic capital generation 12/26E 7.48 7.44 -0 6.55

potential ex Russia (>200bps before dividends and RWA growth). We forecast RBI's 12/27E 8.09 8.14 1 6.76

CET1 at 15.4% before 110bps guided impact of the finalised BBVA Garanti acquisition 12/28E 8.72 8.73 0 6.82

and Addiko transaction still pending, which will take RBI at 14.3% - after which the

bank aims to rapidly rebuild capital to reach 14.5% target. Mate Nemes, CFA

Analyst

mate.nemes@ubs.com

ROTE should go to 15% in 2027E, optionality with Russia

+41-44-234 23 18

RBI shows improving Core (ex. Russia) operating trends, accelerating (and solid) broad-

Nicolas O'Sullivanbased volume growth, lower interest rate sensitivity, and better-than-expected asset

quality. With lower prospective CHF mortgage loan provisioning in Poland, normalizing nicolas.o-sullivan@ubs.com

trading & FV income, and loan growth driving NII, we see RoTEs improving from 10% in +44-20-7568 5364

2025 to 12% in 2026E and 15% in 2027E. In addition, we see some optionality around

RBI's planned c.€2bn counter-claim around the abandoned STRABAG share transaction

and subsequent payments in Russia (not reflected in our P&L and balance sheet

forecasts, nor valuation), reflected in our upside case in Figure 2.

Valuation: 25% discount to European banks' average P/TNAV 26E

RBI shares traded in line with SX7P in L1M, the current valuation gap to the sector fails to

reflect the bank is on a stronger footing, backed by solid asset quality and capital

position, delivering rapid profit growth and RoTE improvement. In our view, the bank is