European Logistics "UBS Evidence Lab inside: DHL Express capacity in June..."

Research evidence excerpt

European Logistics "UBS Evidence Lab inside: DHL Express capacity in June..."

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European Logistics Equities

Europe including UKUBS Evidence Lab inside: DHL Express capacity in

June accelerates to +7% y/y Industrial

Cristian Nedelcu, CFA

Analyst

cristian.nedelcu@ubs.com

UBS Evidence Lab transponder data +44-20-7568 4375

UBS Evidence Lab uses dedicated freighter aircraft transponder data, in conjunction with Samuel Goldstone

cargo payload data, to track air cargo capacity deployment across major trade lanes. We Analyst

are tracking on a weekly basis the dedicated freighter capacity development on major samuel.goldstone@ubs.com

trade lanes as a proxy for demand (> Access Dataset). We discuss below the capacity +44-20-7567 0338

deployment for the the full month of June: Thomas Wadewitz

1. DHL Express capacity up 5% y/y in Q2 with the exit rate June accelerating thomas.wadewitz@ubs.com

to up ~7% y/y. We note is the third sequential month of y/y growth in capacity for DHL +1-212-713 6116

Express following a 20-month period of decline starting in July 2024. Zooming in we Sebastian Vogel, CFA

calculate dedicated freighter capacity on intercontinental long haul routes is up ~12% Analyst

for DHL y/y (Figure 1Monthlydata:JuneExprescapacityisup~1%y/y,withDHLup~7%y/y). sebastian.vogel@ubs.com

+41-44 239 90 45

2. Express Asia to US dedicated freight capacity is up ~12% for June. We note

that DHL is up ~12% y/y (Figure 1Monthlydata:JuneExprescapacityisup~1%y/y,withDHLup~7%y/y). This is the second month of double-digit growth

following 12-25% y/y declines in the previous months (Figure 8Asia-Americadedicatedfreightercapacitydeploymenty/y). We believe this may

reflect the invalidation of IEEPA tariffs.