Pole Position "UBS European & US Autos Daily" Hummel

Research evidence excerpt

Pole Position "UBS European & US Autos Daily" Hummel

Global Research

13 July 2026ab

Pole Position Equities

Europe including UKUBS European & US Autos Daily

Automobiles

Patrick Hummel, CFA

BMW: Pre-close call underpins Q2 to be very soft Analyst

Following the June profit warning and Friday's -4.9% y/y retail sales release in Q2, BMW patrick.hummel@ubs.com

hosted a pre-close call open to sell- and buy-side on Friday during market hours. The IR +41-44-239 52 54

team highlighted that, due to sharply lower China volumes, lower pricing and negative David Lesne

FX and D&A, Q2 auto EBIT margin will be within the revised 1-3% FY target corridor. Analyst

This includes a "low three-digit €m" amount for China dealer support as well as a david.lesne@ubs.com

positive one-off from IEEPA tariff reclaim of roughly the same amount. With that, the +33-14-888 3034

auto EBIT margin should be close to the 2.1% we predicted in our Q2 preview. One Joseph Spak, CFA

could argue that the IEEPA reclaim is more of a one-off than China dealer support, ie, the Analyst

underlying margin could be as low as 1%. Due to overproduction in China, working joseph.spak@ubs.com

capital (inventories) was negatively affected in Q2, resulting in a positive, but +1-212-713 3089

substantially lower FCF q/q - we interpret this as a FCF in the low three-digit €m range, Juan Perez-Carrascosa

with destocking required in H2 (headwind for margins). Analyst

juan-perez.carrascosa@ubs.com

Our view: +34-91-436 9025

On the recently revised FY26 guidance (1-3% auto EBIT margin, including ~100bps for Paul Gong

restructuring and >€2.5bn FCF), H2 would likely reach ~2% auto EBIT margin before Analyst

restructuring. Including restructuring (likely to be booked in Q4), H2 would be around paul.gong@ubs.com

+852-2971 7868