US Softlines Retail "UBS Evidence Lab inside: Pricing, Promos, and..."

Research evidence excerpt

US Softlines Retail "UBS Evidence Lab inside: Pricing, Promos, and..."

Powered by Lab Global13 JulyResearch2026ab Evidence UBS YES

US Softlines Retail Equities

AmericasUBS Evidence Lab inside: Pricing, Promos, and

Inventory Tracker: Pricing Momentum Persists Retailers, Specialty

Jay Sole

Analyst

jay.sole@ubs.com

New Pricing data looks like a positive for Softlines stocks: +1-212-713 3559

UBS Evidence Lab’s June Pricing data shows "out-the-door" prices for softgoods Mauricio Serna, CFA

increased ~3.3% y/y. Prices also continue to trend positively on a multi-year basis, with Analyst

the growth rate improving modestly m/m. Promotions increased ~90 bps y/y in June. mauricio.serna@ubs.com

Price increases suggest companies are continuing to offset tariff costs and protect +1-212-713 9028

margins. It also reinforces our view that the US consumer spending environment is good Natalie Koltermann

and likely better than what is currently priced into Softlines stocks. Elevated promotions Associate Analyst

indicate retailers remain willing to use promotional activity where needed, though natalie.koltermann@ubs.com

pricing trends suggest demand remains healthy. +1-212-713 4229

Aditya Kulkarni

Softlines promotions increased ~90 bps y/y in June: Associate Analyst

We measure promotions using a statistic we call the "Discount Factor." The Discount aditya.kulkarni@ubs.com

Factor is calculated by multiplying the percentage of goods on sale ("Discount Breadth") +1-212-713 1098

during a given time period by the average discount off the original retail price on those Serge Severenchuk

goods ("Discount Depth"). In June, the US Softlines Discount Factor was ~17.4% (Fig. Associate Analyst

1). The June 2026 Discount Factor increased ~90 bps y/y.