Duni Group (AO) | Buy | Q2 results review: Better than feared as logistics outlook improves

Research evidence excerpt

Duni Group (AO) | Buy | Q2 results review: Better than feared as logistics outlook improves

News comment

Release date: 15 July 2026

Erik Sandstedt

Equity Research Analyst

+46 (0) 87235166

esandstedt@keplercheuvreux.com

BuyDuni Group

Sweden | Household durables Beta Profile: MCap: SEK3.6bn

Target Price: SEK95.00 Bloomberg: DUNI SS Reuters: DUNI.ST

Current Price: SEK77.00 Free float 42%

Up/downside: 23.4% Avg. daily volume (SEKm) 6.4

YTD abs performance -26.8% Market data: 14 July 2026

52-week high/low (SEK) 108.60/75.90

Q2 results review: Better than feared as logistics outlook improves

Key points:

Q2 results came in slightly ahead of our expectations, while reported EBIT was affected by restructuring costs and one-off items.

Although end markets remain weak, stable sales and earnings in Germany suggest the underlying business is proving resilient.

The key takeaway was the improving logistics situation. According to the Q2 report, management expects the financial impact to

be significantly lower in Q3, and we estimate the EBIT impact from the logistics disruptions to decline to around SEK15m in Q3E

from approximately SEK50m in Q2, with no material impact thereafter.

While our forecasts remain below Duni's new financial targets, we see gradual progress, with operating margins improving from

6.6% in 2026E to 8.4% in 2028E. We therefore focus on the improving trend rather than the remaining gap to target.

We continue to see Duni as a well-managed company with scope for further margin improvement through cost measures, pricing

optimisation and continued recovery in Food Packaging Solutions. The group also remains well positioned to benefit from PPWR

given its exposure to fibre-based solutions.

Treating 2026E as a transition year, we find the valuation attractive.