Aena (AO) | Hold | Q2/H1 2026 preview: Opex to remain bright on the radar screen

Research evidence excerpt

Aena (AO) | Hold | Q2/H1 2026 preview: Opex to remain bright on the radar screen

#EarningsPreview

Release date: 15 July 2026

Luis Prieto

Head of Constr., Infra & Materials

+34 914 36 5111

lprieto@keplercheuvreux.com

Carlos Caburrasi

Equity Research Analyst

Hold +34 914 36 52 02Aena

ccaburrasiortega@keplercheuvreux.com

Spain | Airlines & airports Beta Profile: MCap: EUR39.8bn

Target Price: EUR26.80 Bloomberg: AENA SM Reuters: AENA.MC

Current Price: EUR26.50 Free float 43%

Up/downside: 1.1% Avg. daily volume (EURm) 121.9

YTD abs performance 11.3% Market data: 14 July 2026

52-week high/low (EUR) 28.81/21.96

Q2/H1 2026 preview: Opex to remain bright on the radar screen

Key points:

Aena posted yesterday, ahead of its H1 2026 results in the last week of July, a 3.8% YOY increase in traffic for the month of June

(+3.7% for the first half) in its Spanish airport network. We are projecting 3% growth for the full year, in line with the latest

consensus and well ahead of the company's current +1.3% guidance. We are, consequently, expecting 2.3% YOY growth in H2.

We believe that the key area of attention in Q2 2026 figures will remain opex performance, which accelerated significantly in Q1.

However, note that the meaningful tariff increase on 1 March (+6.4%) should allow the company to avoid posting YOY EBITDA

margin dilution in Q2, in contrast with the first quarter of the year. The international division remains the most difficult to forecast

due to IFRIC12 construction revenue accounting and, from early May onwards, the new consolidation of Leeds and Newcastle

airports (global and equity consolidation, respectively).

We also expect investor interest to focus on the timing of the remaining steps of the DORA III (2027-2031) regulatory process. Note