Norion (1K) | Buy | Q2: Weak result, but better than it appears

Research evidence excerpt

Norion (1K) | Buy | Q2: Weak result, but better than it appears

ensus EPS 7.20 9.27 10.60

our forecasts by around 3% annually. FY to 31/12 (SEK) 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E

Q2 costs were burdened by the SEK 90m AML fine and transaction costs of SEK P/E adj. and fully diluted(x) 8.0 6.0 5.5

17m related to the Consensus acquisition, but came in broadly in line with our P/BV (x) 1.0 0.9 0.9

P/TBV (x)

expectations. Dividend yield 8.0% 9.3% 10.4%

Credit losses were slightly higher than we expected, and we increase our expected RoTBV 13.3% 16.3% 16.6%

losses by c.10bp for the coming years. RoE after tax 13.2% 15.8% 16.1% CET 1 ratio 11.8% 11.5% 11.4%

SEK 780m of share buybacks were completed during Q2. We continue to forecast Cost income ratio 35.4% 32.7% 32.8%

total buybacks of SEK 1.5bn in 2026E. Net NPL ratio (on loans) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Deconstructing the forecasts Sector Most Pref. Sector Least Pref.

Barclays Banco BPMWe include Consensus AM in our forecasts at a full-year run rate of approximately Raiffeisen Bank International CaixaBank

SEK 65m of income and a similar level of costs, implying a broadly neutral initial Santander Svenska Handelsbanken

earnings contribution.

We lower our 2027–28E earnings forecasts by c.5% on lower NIM expectations and

higher expected credit losses. We continue to forecast strong EPS growth,

supported by loan growth and further share buybacks.

Valuation and investment conclusion

Following the removal of the Balder share overhang, we believe Norion should Markus Sandgren

increasingly trade in line with Nordic niche-bank peers. The shares still trade at a Equity Research Analyst

discount despite comparable profitability and substantial buyback capacity. Our +468 7 235 183 msandgren@keplercheuvreux.com

TP corresponds to 7.9x 2027E EPS.

IMPORTANT.