Hexpol (1K) | Hold | Q2 view: Resilient, but still margin pressure

Research evidence excerpt

Hexpol (1K) | Hold | Q2 view: Resilient, but still margin pressure

#EstimatesRevision #Educational

Release date: 15 July 2026

Company research

ESG profile HoldHexpol

Sweden | Capital goods Beta Profile: MCap: SEK24.8bn

Target Price: SEK80.00 Change in TP: 0.0 % Bloomberg: HPOLB SS Reuters: HPOLb.ST

Current Price: SEK71.90 Change in Sales: 1.8% 26E/1.8% 27E Free float 74%

Up/downside: 11.3% Change in Adj EBIT: 3.9% 26E/4.8% 27E Avg. daily volume (SEKm) 68.7

YTD abs performance -18.2% Market data: 14 July 2026 Change in Adj. EPS: 4.9% 26E/4.9% 27E

52-week high/low (SEK) 92.30/68.55

Q2 view: Resilient, but still margin pressure Price performance

Why this report?

We expect Hexpol’s 20 July Q2 report to show market conditions broadly

stable versus Q1. North America (>50% of sales) is expected to remain

cautious, with customers ordering smaller volumes more frequently amid

macro and automotive uncertainty. Europe appears more stable, while cable,

data centers, construction and infrastructure remain relative bright spots.

Raw material volatility remains the key margin swing factor, with price

increases likely passed through with a lag. We estimate EBITA to decline by

8%, mainly reflecting softer mix, raw material timing effects and weak

automotive demand. The M&A activity has been slow in recent years, then

again gearing is limited and the company indicate that the CEO changeover

should not affect the M&A activities. We leave the SEK 80 unchanged.

FY to 31/12 (SEK) 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E

Key findings Sales 18,818 19,557 20,331

We expect organic growth of 1-2% in Q2, supported somewhat by the pass on of EBITDA adj. 3,193 3,406 3,677

increased raw material costs. Then again, the negative mix impact experienced in the EBIT adj. 2,574 2,842 3,093