Tubacex (1K) | Hold | Fine-tuning estimates ahead of Q226

Research evidence excerpt

Tubacex (1K) | Hold | Fine-tuning estimates ahead of Q226

Tubacex Hold | Target Price: EUR3.35

Reporting date 24-July

Conference call 24 July at 11:00h CET

Dial in number n/a

Table 1:Tubacex: Q2 2026 preview

EUR m Q225 Growth Q226E Consensus

Sales 179.1 -14.6% 153.0 150

EBITDA 30 -33.8% 19.9 20

16.8% 13.0%

Source: Kepler Cheuvreux and Bloomberg consensus

Q2 26 preview: we expect another weak quarter

We expect Q2 26 EBITDA of c. EUR20m, c. 13% EBITDA margin

Tubacex will publish Q226 numbers on 24 July. We expect another weak quarter similar to the

numbers we saw in Q1 2026. We see Tubacex publishing sales of c. EUR150m and an EBITDA of

EUR20m, meaning an EBITDA margin of 13% in Q2 26.

True, comps are again tough as Q225 was a strong quarter with an historical record EBITDA

margin of c. 17%.

Q226 sales will reflect a lower level of activity in an environment of reduced visibility. The

quarter continued to reflect the impact of global trade uncertainty, triggered by US tariff

measures, which continue to delay and condition purchasing and investment decisions.

In addition, the Middle East conflict (which has been extended) has increased geopolitical

instability and reinforced market caution around certain international projects. The full quarter

was marked by production disruptions in Abu Dhabi, where Tubacex has built a plant to serve its

highest OCTG project (ADNOC EUR1bn contract) and supply chain disruptions, affecting the

pace of activity during the semester (temporary effect on revenue and working capital).

In Q2 2026, the sales mix maintained a high weight of strategic and higher value-added

businesses, with Oil & Gas E&P as the main contributor.

That said, Tubacex is maintaining a strong focus on its operational discipline, delivering c.