Retail - Thailand: Strong hardline 2Q26 margin before normalizing in 2H26

Research evidence excerpt

Retail - Thailand: Strong hardline 2Q26 margin before normalizing in 2H26

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Retail - Thailand

Strong hardline 2Q26 margin before

normalizing in 2H26

Industry Overview

Expect both HMPRO and GLOBAL to post strong 2Q26 13 July 2026

Both HMPRO and GLOBAL should post good 2Q26 results as they should benefit from Equity

higher commodity prices (i.e. steel, chemical products and plastic equipment) caused by ASEAN | Thailand

the geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran. Although strong 2Q26 results should Retailing

be a short-term catalyst, tapering/normalizing of 2H26 margin (from normalizing spread Sirichai Chalokepunrat ^^^

between ASP and average cost) amid the weak consumption sentiment should cap share Research Analyst

price increases given the lack of catalysts going forward. This is in line with the Kiatnakin+66 2 305Phatra9204 Securities

companies’ guidance that their operation (retail margin) peaked in April-May and sirichai.chal@kkpfg.com

gradually tapered in June towards 2H26. The valuation also seems to be at a premium

over the average of peers. We therefore maintain our Neutral on both companies.

GLOBAL’s 2Q26 result preview

Exhibit 1: Recommendation highlights

We expect the company to post 2Q26 NPAT of Bt778mn, up 50% YoY. The company’s Ratings and Price Objective of stocks

1H26 NPAT would rise 39% YoY accordingly, which should account for 58% of our full-

year estimates. Revenue growth should be down slightly YoY as we expect SSS to be BofA

Stock ticker Rating PO (Bt)negative at around 4% in this quarter. However, the growth driver should be gross

GLOBAL XAOPF Neutral 7.80

margin which we expect to grow 330bp YoY in this quarter, mainly led by price increases HMPRO HMPDF Neutral 7.58

for both steel and non-steel items.