Streaming or Dreaming?

Research evidence excerpt

Streaming or Dreaming?

July 13, 2026

disclosed at the upfronts) alongside strong penetration, satisfaction, and churn-intent scores. We

further estimated that the additional 15 ad-tier markets launched could drive an incremental

revenue contribution of ~$700MM-$1B by 2028, and further lifted our 2028 revenue/EBIT by

1%/2%, LSD% above the Street on both estimates.

2) 2026 Upfronts & 15 New Ad Markets. At its fourth annual Upfront event in early May, Netflix

announced that its ad-supported tier has surpassed 250 million global monthly active viewers,

with more than 80% of members watching weekly. The company also expanded the ad-

supported plan into 15 new markets, including the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, Poland,

Indonesia, and Thailand, among others. See our recap here.

3) Viewership Hours Show Mixed Q2 Engagement. Netflix's weekly Top 10 rankings indicate

mixed engagement in Q2, with total hours viewed across the Top 10 titles declining -13% Q/Q

and -9% Y/Y, decelerating from -7% Q/Q in Q1 and flat Y/Y. We would note, however, that

historically the correlation between Netflix's Top 10 viewing hours and reported financial results

has been relatively weak.

4) According to a WSJ article from 7/9 (link), Netflix is exploring themed live TV channels

and bundling third-party streaming subscriptions to boost engagement. This news came

out after an earlier report from Bloomberg (link) that called out softening viewership on several

of its biggest returning series. The moves would echo the linear-TV model Netflix originally

disrupted and mirror the add-on strategies already used by Prime Video and Apple TV+,

extending a multi-year push into live events, ad-supported tiers, video podcasts, and creator

content.

5) Nielsen Gauge Data.