Mercadolibre Inc.: 2Q26 Preview: The Dial Is Set… What Could Move the Narrative?

Research evidence excerpt

Mercadolibre Inc.: 2Q26 Preview: The Dial Is Set… What Could Move the Narrative?

Idea

July 15, 2026 01:45 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMMercadolibre Inc. | Latin America Andrew R Ruben

Equity Analyst

2Q26 Preview: The Dial Is Set… Andrew.Ruben@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley C.T.V.M. S.A.+ +1 212 761-4415

Alexandre K Namioka, CFA

Equity AnalystWhat Could Move the Alexandre.Namioka@morganstanley.com +55 11 3048-6073

Joao Marcelo Nogueira

Research AssociateNarrative?

Joao.Marcelo.Nogueira@morganstanley.com +55 11 3048-6247

Mercadolibre Inc. (MELI.O, MELI US)

LatAm Retail & eCommerce | Argentina

Our 6.9% 2Q EBIT margin (~US$680mn) near-matches Stock Rating Overweight

Industry View No Rating

consensus and aligns with 1Q investment intensity "dial" Price target US$2,450.00

Shr price, close (Jul 14, 2026) US$1,873.88

messaging. Revenue is outsized (MSe +45% y/y), while EBIT Mkt cap, curr (mm) US$95,001

declines persist (-18% y/y). GMV durability could be an upside 52-Week Range US$2,548.50-1,495.00

surprise, powering a return to EBIT growth in 2H as margin Fiscal Year Ending 12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

compares ease. Revenue, net (US$ mm) 28,893 41,456 52,475 62,914

EPS (US$)** 39.39 39.64 61.62 81.89

Prior EPS (US$)** - - - -

Key Takeaways P/E 51.1 47.3 30.4 22.9

EPS (US$)§ 40.84 39.44 56.80 79.05

Our 2Q EBIT margin of 6.9% is -530bps y/y but flat q/q, as Brazil take rate, credit, Div yld (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

and AI spend dynamics offset typical positive seasonality factors. Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

Investments drive uplift. We forecast revenue +45% y/y (+49% 1Q), including § = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates