Saizeriya (7581) Our thoughts on the impact of potential price hikes

Research evidence excerpt

Saizeriya (7581) Our thoughts on the impact of potential price hikes

JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd. Asia Pacific Equity Research

Ami Terai AC 16 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

(81-3) 6736-8660

ami.terai@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Saizeriya (7581) (Overweight; Price Target: ¥7,300)

Investment Thesis

Under President Hideharu Matsutani’s leadership, improvements in menus, restaurant

operations, and organizational structure have driven improvements in domestic same-store

sales and profitability. We expect sales per outlet to grow further going forward on further

refinement of the business model and organizational structure. As the company prepares for

a full-scale growth phase, including improvements in menus as well as store and employee

productivity, we see an increasing likelihood of medium-term growth globally.

Valuation

Our end-2026 price target is ¥7,300. We apply a P/E of 25x to our FY8/27 EPS estimate. We

expect earnings maximization at each outlet to continue in Japan going forward, and believe

Saizeriya is becoming more committed to increasing outlet openings in Japan and overseas

going forward under the leadership of President Matsutani. Given that we see a growing

likelihood of future growth, we base our price target on a P/E of 25x, slightly above the

stock’s past 10-year average of 22x (excluding the 2020–21 period of severe pandemic

impact).

Risks to Rating and Price Target

Upside Scenario to Target Price/Rating

• Acceleration in store opening pace in Japan and overseas

• Improvement in Chinese economy

• Introduction of price increases to the extent that consumers can accept in Japanese

outlets

• Reinstatement of shareholder benefits

• Increase in gross margin due to yen appreciation against the euro and declining raw

material costs