European Equity Derivatives Strategy The blue-sky scenario for UK homebuilders; positioning for conviction longs & shorts in Q2; earnings implied moves

Research evidence excerpt

European Equity Derivatives Strategy The blue-sky scenario for UK homebuilders; positioning for conviction longs & shorts in Q2; earnings implied moves

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

15 July 2026

European Equity Derivatives

Strategy

The blue-sky scenario for UK homebuilders; positioning

for conviction longs & shorts in Q2; earnings implied

moves

• The incoming Burnham government may introduce a range of policy Global Quantitative and Derivatives

initiatives that would bring housing policy to the forefront—making a revived Strategy

Help-to-Buy scheme (alongside broader pro-transaction measures) far more Davide Silvestrini AC

plausible, and creating an unusually asymmetric upside set-up for UK (44-20) 7134-4082

homebuilders if policy moves from speculation to implementation. davide.silvestrini@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

AC• The sector has meaningfully de-rated and already discounts a tough macro Esmail Afsah

backdrop, with arguably limited downside from here. We recommend to (44-20) 7742-9231

position ahead of Burnham’s official term starting 20 July via Dec-26 Call esmail.afsah@jpmorgan.com

Spread Collars in JPUKHOME. J.P. Morgan Securities plc

• We highlight JP Morgan Q2 conviction longs (Holcim, Bouygues, Umicore Yangyang(1-212) 834-6734Hou

and UniCredit) and shorts ( Ahold, BASF, Carrefour and Anglo American) yangyang.hou@jpmorgan.com

and recommend to position accordingly via call spreads or put spreads, in part J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

funded by longer-dated options to off-set the cost of gamma where particularly Tony SK Lee

rich and to benefit from the post-earnings volatility reset. We also recommend (852) 2800-8857

to position tactically short on SAP going into the company’s 2Q numbers. tony.sk.lee@jpmorgan.com

J.P.