J.P. Morgan LatAm FTM 15 Jul 26 Mexican Bottlers; Tenaris SA; Brazilian Homebuilders; Mexico Retail; Anima and More

Research evidence excerpt

J.P. Morgan LatAm FTM 15 Jul 26 Mexican Bottlers; Tenaris SA; Brazilian Homebuilders; Mexico Retail; Anima and More

Latin America Equity Research

LatAm First to Market 15 July 2026

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Mexican Bottlers (Lucas Ferreira)

2Q26 Preview: Weather and World Cup Provide Limited Uplift Amid Soft Demand

The 2Q26 setup for Mexican bottlers reinforces weaker-than-expected underlying demand in Mexico, with weather still not

cleanly normalized and June’s World Cup uplift proving incremental rather than a true offset. Against that backdrop, the near-

term quarter setup is differentiated: KOF looks cleaner in 2Q given a more supportive consolidated mix (with South America—

particularly Brazil/Colombia—helping offset Mexico softness), while AC* remains more mixed as Mexico and the U.S. continue

to weigh despite South America as a positive contributor. We are ~2–3% below consensus on 2Q26E EBITDA for both

companies and, at the FY26 level, we sit ~flat-to-slightly below consensus for AC* while remaining ~2% below for KOF on

revenue/EBITDA. Importantly, we continue to see an asymmetric upside skew if weather normalizes (here) more cleanly, as

base repair could drive meaningful reported volume surprises even under a sluggish consumer backdrop—particularly if the

Coca-Cola system’s market share gains are sustained. In our view, the cleaner near-term setup at KOF has driven the stronger

relative performance vs AC month to date, leaving both names on broadly similar forward multiples. Accordingly, despite KOF’s

cleaner near-term momentum in 2Q, we maintain our relative preference for AC*: valuation is now at parity (both trading at 15x

fwdP/E ) vs a 7% historical premium for AC vs KOF, we see better risk/reward and forecast visibility in AC’s Mexico given a less