China Property Tier-1 cities’ home price stabilization continues, but overall trends diverge

Research evidence excerpt

China Property Tier-1 cities’ home price stabilization continues, but overall trends diverge

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

15 July 2026

China Property

Tier-1 cities’ home price stabilization continues, but

overall trends diverge

The industry data for June shows divergent trends. While home prices in tier-1 cities Mainland China/Hong Kong Property

continued to see positive M/M growth (+0.1% in primary; +0.3% in secondary) for & Conglomerates

the fourth consecutive month (notably, not driven by nationwide easing), 70-city Karl Chan AC

home prices showed divergent trends, with primary M/M decline narrowing but (852) 2800-8513

secondary M/M decline widening. Residential sales value dropped 14% Y/Y in June, karl.chan@jpmorgan.com

softening from -8% Y/Y in May (below our forecast of <10% Y/Y decline), although Venus Choi

the top 100 developers’ sales (which better reflect real-time trends) showed a milder (852) 2800-8599

4% Y/Y decline in June (report). Construction activity remains weak with new starts venus.choi@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P.

seeing a 26% Y/Y decline, although we believe this helps reduce supply and thus Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited

home price stabilization. Overall, we stick to our view that (1) tier-1 cities’ home

prices will see a soft form of stabilization in FY26 (led by Shanghai); (2) both primary

home prices and nationwide sales value will still be on a downtrend in FY26, but the

decline magnitude will narrow. Against this backdrop of K-shaped stabilization, we’d

stick to alphas (SOE developers with outperforming sales growth), including COLI,

CR Land and Jinmao, which have all remained YTD outperformers (+7%/+23%/

+12% vs. HSI -4%).