Capital Goods Today 15 July 2026

Research evidence excerpt

Capital Goods Today 15 July 2026

prior guidance. We calculate that this is likely to raise FY26

consensus estimates by around 25%. However, the most important points in their report were indications from the company on

capacity in 2027 and 2028. The co. has indicated that they will raise both EUV and immersion DUV capacity in both 2027 and

2028 by 30% which would result in approx. 85/110 EUV and 169/210 Immersion DUV tools in 2027/2028. The 2028 capacity

guidance is higher than JPMe and JPMe were the highest sell side estimates for that year. On the back of the envelope this would

result in more than €65 in EPS for 2028, potentially enhanced even more so by the very strong Installed Base Management

revenue that ASML is already seeing. Overall the only slight negative is that the co. does not achieve 90 EUV tool capacity in

2027. However, given the much stronger than expected 2028 EUV and Immersion DUV capacity, we don't believe this should

matter. ASML is significantly undervalued vs. US peers. The message from the bears has been that they are capacity limited or

that they don't grow as much as their U.S. peers. 2026 growth is now ~35% which is ahead of the currently understood WFE

growth and the co. is virtually guiding 30% growth in the next two years. We believe the discount to peers should close. Reiterate

Overweight rating. ASML is on the JPMorgan AFL.

(Link to the note)

Schaeffler AG (€10.00) (N), Germany

Post Pre-Close Call Feedback (Jose M Asumendi)

Schaeffler is guiding for Q2 sales to be broadly flat yoy at €5.9bn, as global car production is expected to be lower than initially

estimated. Despite this, EBIT margin is forecast to improve to 4.7% (+3% vs. BBG Cons.), approaching the midpoint of full-year