Rio Tinto Limited 2Q26 results solid, volume guidance unchanged, costs positively adjusted, retain OW

Research evidence excerpt

Rio Tinto Limited 2Q26 results solid, volume guidance unchanged, costs positively adjusted, retain OW

gan Securities Australia Limited

Ally/Lithium were all in line. All 2026 volume guidance is unchanged; diesel

is a flagged headwind (~$0.8/t YoY impact in 1H) with every US$10/bbl move

Half Yearly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

to impact costs by $0.15/t. Copper C1 net unit cost guidance was reduced to

Adj. EBITDA ($ mn)

US30-50c/lb from US65-75c/lb due to higher gold prices and productivity 2025A 2026E 2027E

improvements. ~$1.6bn in cash outflows was flagged, including $400m in OT H1 9,553 13,107 14,108

tax payments to the government (RIO disputing) and ~$1.2bn WC adjustment. H2 11,745 12,678 14,236

FY 21,298 25,785 28,344

• Project updates. Oyu Tolgoi delivered +31% H1 growth and remains on track

to ~500ktpa (100%) from 2028-36. We flag the Kennecott flash converting Style Exposure

furnace breach (~75-day rebuild from late June) will reduce refined copper/

gold in H2 2026, but total copper production estimates for the year are

unchanged given matte production continues. On growth, Simandou is

advancing at pace – SimFer mine ~77% and port ~85% complete, first ore

through the primary crusher targeted Q4 2026, SimFer port commissioning Q1

2027 and ramp towards full production in H2 2028. Lithium delivered first

production at Fénix 1B and Sal de Vida ahead of plan.

• Remain Overweight. After updating our model with the 2Q26 results, our

2026 earnings are little changed. RIO has fallen ~14% since its June highs on

macro events, namely commodities risk-off (equities have fallen much more

than the underlying commodity prices), a pivot to hawkish Fed rate

expectations, bearish aluminium sentiment, a faltering AI trade, and the

resumption of the ME conflict.