Australian Banks

Research evidence excerpt

Australian Banks

Macquarie Equity Research

13 July 2026

Banks

AustraliaAustralian Banks

Cloudy with a chance of patchy credit growth

Victor Carlos

Key Points German Cacho

• IT sector capex has surged ~300% over the past three years, reflecting

the rapid build out of digital infrastructure.

• Digital infrastructure could unlock ~$30-60bn of bank lending. JasonShao, CFA

• Despite the scale of investment, only a fraction is likely to flow to

banks, limiting earnings upside to just ~1-2% over the medium term.

Figure 1 - IT, media & telecomms

Capex Expectations

• Can digital infrastructure offset housing: As housing-credit growth A$b

slows (see How low can housing credit growth go), we assess whether 30 28

digital infrastructure can provide a meaningful new growth pool for 25 24

banks. While it is easy to get excited by the scale of the opportunity,

drawing on our colleagues’ work in, Neoclouds: The Matrix has you, 20

we believe only a fraction is likely to flow to major banks. The fastest- 15 13

growing GPU and neocloud layer carries risks around depreciating 10

collateral, short customer contracts and refinancing, which is likely 10 8

to limit bank participation. As a result, while the digital infrastructure 5

investment cycle should support credit growth, we do not expect it to

fully offset slower credit formation elsewhere. 0 07-08 10-11 13-14 16-17 19-20 22-23 25-26

• Data-centre and energy build-out could drive $30-60bn in bank debt: Source: ABS, Macquarie Research, July 2026

Australian data-centre capacity is expected to grow ~10x over the Adjusted by average realisation ratios*

next decade, requiring significant investment in data centres, power,

connectivity and related infrastructure. Based on current industry Figure 2 - Estimated operational