NatWest Group plc: Working through overhang

Research evidence excerpt

NatWest Group plc: Working through overhang

Equity Research

European Banks

14 July 2026

NatWest Group plc

Working through overhang

NatWest offers strong fundamentals, inc 20% RoTE, dd

revenue growth and accelerating loan momentum. Yet near-

term est upside potential is likely capped by mortgage and NWG.L/NWG LN EQUAL WEIGHT Unchanged

deposit churn. With little EPS upside vs cons, and impending European Banks POSITIVE

lack of bbk support, UK politics remains the dominant Unchanged

overhang. Price Target raised 1% fromGBpGBp740730

Price (13-Jul-26) GBp 655

Key focus areas into results: Potential Upside/Downside +13.0%

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

• Expecting ongoing delivery, strong loan growth: We look for 2Q revenues up 10% y/y

driven by NII on continued hedge repricing and strong loan growth (up 6% y/y, including Market Cap (GBP mn) 52186

double-digit growth in Corporate and Institutional). Non-NII growth should recover y/y off a Shares Outstanding (mn) 7967.34

weak 1Q. Free Float (%) 100.00

• Deposits, mortgages likely to temper material near-term upside potential: But it's also 52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 14.2

Dividend Yield (%) 4.96 been a competitive quarter for deposits, particularly fixed term ISAs, and together with

Return on Equity TTM (%) 15.16 mortgage margin churn, we think this is likely to temper material upside to cons in the

Current BVPS (GBp) 490 quarter. Indeed, we don't expect a significant change to FY guidance, inc FY26 income (ex

Source: Bloomberg

Evelyn) at upper end of £17.2-17.6bn range (vs BARCe £17.7bn).

• Turning the tide on Evelyn: With the acquisition of Evelyn having completed in June, we Price Performance Exchange-LSE