CMS Energy Corporation: 2Q26 Preview: Weak Results Expected

Research evidence excerpt

CMS Energy Corporation: 2Q26 Preview: Weak Results Expected

Barclays | CMS Energy Corporation

share run-rate earnings for Northstar. Management has previously emphasized its ability to

offset significant headwinds and is unlikely to be overly concerned about a potential $0.15/

share earnings impact. For example, in 2023, CMS successfully mitigated roughly $300

million, or $0.75/share, of plan headwinds. We estimate a potential divestiture of Northstar to

be $0.07-0.08/share dilutive, or ~1.7-1.8% dilutive to our 2027 consolidated EPS estimate of

$4.16 for CMS (see our note) - this assumes the full business is sold, so it represents the most

bearish scenario in our view. We don't think this is going to result in a major rebase event for

the stock, but could see FY27 EPS inside of the 6-8% EPS CAGR - instead of the high end - with

mgmt having additional capital behind this to accelerate. We believe certain scenarios with

higher capex for a DC could still lead CMS to a higher 2028-2030 outlook than it has today, ex-

Northstar, which would be EPS and multiple accretive.

• Large load & customer contracting: CMS has indicated that data center discussions have

advanced since the 1Q call, with progress also occurring with manufacturing customers.

Investor skepticism around the company's data center strategy has centered on zoning

challenges across CMS footprint, particularly in Gaines Township. However, CMS’s targeted 6–

8% EPS CAGR does not include any contribution from future data center contracts, and the

company has already secured one large ESA. Management has noted that development

efforts are underway across 10 parcels, some of which do not require zoning changes, and

remains confident the projects will ultimately move forward. This a major execution item for