U.S. Equity Factor Insights - July 2026: Capex Crescendo Cools

Research evidence excerpt

U.S. Equity Factor Insights - July 2026: Capex Crescendo Cools

Equity Research

Equity Strategy

14 July 2026

U.S. Equity Factor Insights - July 2026

Capex Crescendo Cools SIGNATURE

Even as earnings estimates trend up, cooling of AI enthusiasm

and resumption of Hormuz hostilities means risk-on pulls

back; we turn Negative on High-v-Low Vol and go Neutral U.S. Equity Strategy

Quality; we continue to stay positive Growth & Large-v-Small, Riddhiman+1 212 526 0850Dass

riddhiman.dass@barclays.comand neutral Value, Momentum & Yield

BCI, US

The methodology behind US & EU factor basket construction can be viewed in Global Equity Venu Krishna, CFA

+1 212 526 7328Strategy - Updating Barclays Equity Factor Baskets for Liquidity Weighting, 2 Apr 2025.

venu.krishna@barclays.com

BCI, USWhat changed?

Rex Feng

• Upgrade Quality to Neutral + 1 212 526 6114

rex.feng@barclays.com

• Downgrade High-over-Low Volatility to Negative BCI, US

What’s Driving the Change? Atharva Weling

+1 212 526 3204

• Quality: Moderation in AI-driven exuberance and rising geopolitical risks (e.g., Strait of atharva.weling@barclays.com

BCI, US Hormuz) are improving Quality’s relative appeal, supported by lighter positioning, even as the

absence of a full risk-off regime and still-elevated valuations cap upside. Tianqi Feng

+1 212 526 9179

• High-over-Low Volatility: Cooling AI momentum and renewed geopolitical risks are tianqi.feng@barclays.com

exposing more speculative, lower-quality segments to sentiment-driven drawdowns, with BCI, US

weak profitability and rotation toward safer names far removed from the AI complex

amplifying downside risk.

What stays the same?

• Growth: Supported by a durable AI capex cycle, with Big Tech weakness reflecting a