Tesla, Inc.: Key themes into 2Q26 EPS - how much does an improved auto biz matter?

Research evidence excerpt

Tesla, Inc.: Key themes into 2Q26 EPS - how much does an improved auto biz matter?

Barclays | Tesla, Inc.

Optimus V3 production/volume/sales/etc. developments, will likely be key positives for the

stock, continuing to drive Tesla's narrative on robotics leadership.

3. What is the scaling path of Terafab?

Our main takeaway from Tesla's Terafab announcement (see note) was that chips are the pillar

for Tesla's growth over the next decade+ and at the center of their physical AI push. Terafab

presented a hyper-growth thesis, targeting 1 TW of annual compute production capacity (~50x

current global AI compute capacity) to support vehicles/robots on the earth and data centers in

space. In short, Terafab created another growth angle to overshadow weaker near-term

fundamentals, adding to the "meme" nature of Tesla's stock.

Our key question is on the scaling path of Terafab plans. While we acknowledge the "don't bet

against Tesla narrative" that many investors subscribe to, we view some elements of the

Terafab project as a "show-me story", and expect to see much smaller-scale aspirations, at least

in the near/mid-term.

At 1Q Tesla announced that the first Terafab facility would be a $3bn Tesla-funded research fab

at Giga Texas, capable of a few thousand WSPM. The first phase of larger scale Terafab will be

funded by SpaceX. Tesla plans to use Intel's 14A process, which mgmt noted was not yet totally

complete, but should be fairly mature by the time Terafab scales up. Intel plans 14A production

in late-2027, with volume production in 2028. Tesla is Intel's first customer for 14A.

4. Tesla is a global leader in ESS - Data center opportunities?

Tesla's Energy business often gets overshadowed by other "more exciting" areas of growth such

as Robotaxi and Optimus.