IBM Corp.: Negative Q2 Pre-Announcement Requires Second Look

Research evidence excerpt

IBM Corp.: Negative Q2 Pre-Announcement Requires Second Look

Equity Research

U.S. Software

14 July 2026

IBM Corp.

Negative Q2 Pre-Announcement

Requires Second Look First Look

At first glance - IBM's revenue numbers are lower across the IBM OVERWEIGHT

board (software, consulting and infra), which suggests broad- U.S. Software POSITIVE

based weakness. However, all of these lower numbers are Price Target USD 350.00

Price (13-Jul-26) USD 290.23

related to a shift in short-term investments away from the Potential Upside/Downside +20.6%

mainframe to other areas. This is not a thesis changer. Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

U.S. SoftwareA negative pre-announcement, especially at the scale IBM delivered this morning (total revenue

Raimo Lenschow, CFA

$17.2bn vs $17.8bn consensus), is never pretty. However, in judging the ultimate share price

+1 212 526 2712

reaction it is important to understand whether the announcement changes the investment raimo.lenschow@barclays.com

thesis (IBM moving towards higher growth modern software solutions (see IBM Corp.: Stable BCI, US

Growth With Exciting Quantum Optionality; Initiating Overweight, $350 PT, 6/1/26). We don't

Sheldon McMeans

think so as the IBM announcement suggests that the shortfall was predominantly driven by the

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mainframe (z-Series) part of the business (and its adjacency like transaction software). Red Hat sheldon.mcmeans@barclays.com

actually accelerated growth QoQ and the recent software acquisitions also delivered well. In BCI, US

other words, shares will likely suffer today but there remains hope.

Eamon Coughlin

The key debate we can see emerging now is if the mainframe is facing more headwinds from AI +1 212 526 6142