A Deeper Dive Into What's Hot, Mild, and Bland In The U.S. Retail Business

Research evidence excerpt

A Deeper Dive Into What's Hot, Mild, and Bland In The U.S. Retail Business

Food: Food Producers

McCormick & Company

TD SECURITIES (USA) LLC COMPANY UPDATE

July 10, 2026

Price: $51.54 (07/9/2026) A Deeper Dive Into What's Hot, Mild, and

Price Target: $60.00 Bland In The U.S. Retail Business

BUY (1)

Robert Moskow THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

646 562 1474

McCormick's highly important Americas Consumer division is struggling for a second year in

robert.moskow@tdsecurities.com

a row. Management will need to take corrective actions to ensure that the shortfalls do not

Sergio Matsumoto complicate the integration of the UL Foods merger or cause forecasts to revise lower. In this

646 562 1339 report, we help investors discern which problems we view as cyclical/fixable and which could

sergio.matsumoto@tdsecurities.com

be more structural in nature.

Jacob Henry, CFA

646 562 1380 What's Cyclical And What's Structural?

jacob.henry@tdsecurities.com

We estimate that 29% of McCormick's U.S. retail sales come from sub-categories with

Victor Ma challenges the company can solve relatively quickly, while 35% is facing issues that may prove

646 562 1306

intractable. Specifically, we view the company's market share losses in herbs & spices and salt

victor.ma2@tdsecurities.com

& pepper as "cyclical," meaning the company is capable of addressing them rather quickly.

Seamus Cassidy However, we believe the company's competitive positioning in seasonings, recipe mixes,

646 562 1319 and BBQ sauce has weakened considerably due to competition from emerging brands with

seamus.cassidy@tdsecurities.com more authentic positioning (e.g., Kinder, Spanglish, and Siete). Category weakness in recipe

Key Data mixes, sauces & marinades, and yellow mustard is likely to persist. Addressing these issues will