2Q26 Auto Finance Preview: Less Hope for Rate Relief

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 Auto Finance Preview: Less Hope for Rate Relief

USA | Consumer Finance EquityJulyResearch8, 2026

KEY STOCKS FEATURED INCLUDE:2Q26 Auto Finance Preview: Less Hope for Rate

TICKER RATING PRICE TARGETRelief

ALLY HOLD $46.00

For 2Q26, the incremental focus in auto finance will be on potential changes CACC HOLD $650.00

in rate patterns, affordability and competition (from big banks). Credit metrics LPRO HOLD $3.15

remain stable, however high fuel and purchase prices and elevated interest

rates continue to act as constraints to industry performance. Lower interest

rates would provide some relief, however there is a lower probability of this

KEY CHANGES INCLUDE:

happening now. We remain on the sidelines given these crosscurrents.

TICKER RATING PRICE TARGET

Credit remains stable but is beginning to normalize, while affordability stays structurally CACC HOLD $650.00 ($560.00)

constrained and refi tailwinds are plateauing. As of May, year-over-year delinquencies continue LPRO HOLD $3.15 ($1.70)

to revert to normal levels (Exhibit 1). Credit performance in 2Q26 remains solid with delinquencies

still below historical levels and only modestly improving seasonally, though charge-offs are drifting

higher sequentially and Y/Y, signaling early normalization; trends remain bifurcated with resilience

Exhibit 1 - Industry Level Y/Y DQs

in prime/bank portfolios versus persistent stress in subprime. Affordability has stabilized at the 2.00%2.00%

margin but remains pressured, with monthly payments ~$750–770 supported by incentives and 1.00%1.00%

income growth, yet offset by still-elevated vehicle prices (~$49K new; ~$26–27K used, +~6% Y/ 0.00%0.00%

Y), mix shift to higher-cost vehicles, and limited trade-down options, driving >35% of loans to >6- -1.00%-1.00%