Jun-Qtr Preview: Banks' Growth Uptick; NBFCs' Buoyancy; NLFs' Divergence

Research evidence excerpt

Jun-Qtr Preview: Banks' Growth Uptick; NBFCs' Buoyancy; NLFs' Divergence

India | Financials EquityJulyResearch8, 2026

Jun-Qtr Preview: Banks' Growth Uptick; Pre-qtr updates for 1QFY27:

NBFCs' Buoyancy; NLFs' Divergence Banks: June Pre-Qtr: Uptick in Loan Growth

for Most; Deposit Growth Lags; AQ Stable

In Jun-Qtr, leading banks should see strong loan growth, better NII growth &

lower credit costs, aiding 15% YoY rise in PBT (ex-treasury). NBFCs should HDFCB: Jun Pre Qtr: Credit Growth Picks

Up; Good Momentum in Deposits

see similar trends, aiding 32% YoY rise in core profit. NLFs' results will be

divergent; better for health insurers, AMCs & WMs, softer for exchanges, MMFS: Jun Q - Pre Qtr: Muted Growth;

multi-line insurers and RTAs, while balanced for life insurers. AQ Hold Up Better Than Usual Seasonal

Trends

Banks: Strong momentum in growth & asset quality; weaker margins. For leading banks, BAF: Jun Pre-Qtr: Loan Growth Accelerates

PBT (ex-treasury) should grow by 15% YoY, aided by fall in credit costs & 8% NII growth. Credit to 24%

growth has improved to 16% YoY, aided by a surge in ST credit demand, but NIMs may see

pressure - most banks to see flat / falling NIMs. Trends in fees and opex are largely steady;

Treasury income will fall sharply YoY, but improve QoQ. Asset quality is steady/improving,

albeit for seasonal rise in agri-slippages. Across banks, ICICI stands out on steady core NIMs

& write-back of prov on assets. IDFCB's profit aided by lower credit costs & receipt of CGFMU

claim. IIB may hold NIMs, aided by growth in MFI loans. On the other hand, Axis and SBI NIMs

may see some pressure due to rise in share of corp loans; SBI aims to keep NIM stable by

repricing loans.

NBFCs - Strong growth and AQ trends, NIMs diverge. For our NBFC coverage (ex Gold NBFC,