Turkish Consumers Costs settle, risks lingers

Research evidence excerpt

Turkish Consumers Costs settle, risks lingers

10 July 2026

Turkish Consumers EquitiesConsumer Brands & Retail

Costs settle, risks lingers Türkiye

◆ Crude oil price stabilisation may ease cost inflation, but wage Bulent Yurdagul*

resets and tourism weakness keep risks elevated Head of EEMEA Consumer Research HSBC Bank Middle East Limited, DIFC

bulentyurdagul@hsbc.com

◆ High inflation lifts nominal sales; volumes soften, promotions +971 569445882

rise, value formats outperform discretionary spending Neerav Agarwal*

Analyst, EEMEA Consumer

HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private

◆ We like defensive growth names – BIM and CCI, both Buy; Limited

neerav.kumar.agarwal@hsbc.co.in

raise TP for Aefes, CCI, and DO & CO, cut TP for Mavi +91 0 80 30012510

Vishal Mirwani*

Associate

Cost pressure eases slightly, risk lingers: Higher oil prices triggered by the Middle Bangalore

East conflict added fresh cost risk for Turkish consumer-facing sectors, lifting inflation and

spilling into input costs (raw materials, fertilisers, packaging). With oil partially normalising * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is

after a ceasefire announcement, the base case is for cost pressures to moderate in 2H if not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations

Brent stays cUSD70-80/bbl. The key swing factors for sector earnings are stabilising

fuel/energy prices (especially supportive for logistics-heavy and delivery-led models), the

potential re-emergence of wage pressure (notably if a midyear reset occurs), persistently

high inflation (supporting nominal sales but squeezing real demand), and weaker tourism

trends affecting seasonal and on-premise spending.

Resilient subsectors: Across the sector, high food inflation continues to support reported