Global Transport Impact of Middle East conflict – XIII

Research evidence excerpt

Global Transport Impact of Middle East conflict – XIII

ted by 3%,

container retreated 3% on hopes of transit resumption, and dry bulk also down 3%. * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is

not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations

Bifurbication of tanker market may resume: With the Strait of Hormuz blocked again,

we expect oil in transit to fall after recovering by 6% since the deal was reached, which is

now 15% higher than the low point during the conflict. Tankers in the Middle East could

see elevated rates due to heightened risk premium but elsewhere, freight rates may start

normalising as tankers reposition for cargo availability. Any delayed but eventual

resolution in the conflict could result in more lasting inventory rebuilding, but near-term

earnings could see downside due to reduced cargo availability.

Container rates could see some inefficiency-led support into the peak season with

delayed Red Sea resumption: The immediate impact on the container sector will be

countering the downside risk from transit normalisation in the Red Sea given geo-

political uncertainty; even Maersk is resuming Suez transit but we think this is more

tactical and do not expect follow-through from other players till next year. With

congestion at a four-year high and idling at lows, we think this will support freight rates

into the peak season, but further impact from the Middle East appears limited.

Milder impacts on dry bulk due to a diversified cargo base. We see long-haul trade

and strong commodity flows lifting dry bulk tonne-miles and utilisation, with Guinea

bauxite shipments +21% and grain +13% in 5M26 y-o-y boosting Panamax/Supra

earnings. The coal trade could be boosted during the summer if energy prices rebound.