MSCI: 2Q26 Beat Expected on ABF Upside and Strong Bookings Momentum

Research evidence excerpt

MSCI: 2Q26 Beat Expected on ABF Upside and Strong Bookings Momentum

RBC Capital Markets, LLC

Ashish Sabadra (Analyst)

(415) 633-8659, ashish.sabadra@rbccm.com

David Paige (Analyst)

(646) 703-1063, david.paige@rbccm.com

William Qi (AVP)

(646) 618-6963, william.qi@rbccm.com

July 8, 2026

MSCI Inc Outperform

NYSE: MSCI; USD 604.23RESEARCH 2Q26 Beat Expected on ABF Upside and Strong Price Target USD 655.00

Bookings Momentum Scenario Analysis*

Our view: We expect 2Q26 results to beat estimates driven by ABF upside,

with potential FY26 FCF guidance raise despite tightening adjusted EBITDA DownsideScenario CurrentPrice TargetPrice ScenarioUpside

expense guidance to the higher end of the range. Index subscription growth

should reaccelerate to low double digits; however, Analytics revenues 430.0028% 604.23 655.009% 700.0016%

are expected to moderate to ~5%. We're modeling net new recurring

*Implied Total ReturnsEQUITY subscription sales of ~$52m (19% y/y), modestly above consensus at $51m, Key Statistics

supported by strong Index momentum. We expect a modest decline in Shares O/S (MM): 77.8 Market Cap (MM): 47,013

Analytics new subscriptions due to tough comps, though upside exists if Dividend: 3.12 Yield: 0.5%

retention outperforms—it's lapping weaker 2Q25 retention metrics. Avg. Daily Volume: 730,891

RBC Estimates Key points: FY Dec 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E

AUM growth momentum continues. MSCI's quarterly average AUM grew Revenue 3,134.5 3,489.3 3,819.9 4,194.2

~45% y/y in 2Q26, with monthly trends of ~49% (Apr), ~45% (May), and Prev. 3,481.0 3,812.2 4,186.7

~42% (Jun). We conservatively model ~29% y/y ABF fee growth for 2Q26, EBITDA, Adj 1,906.5 2,158.4 2,404.0 2,687.1

above consensus estimate of 24%, supported by robust AUM expansion Prev. 2,149.9 2,395.4 2,678.8