CHRD: Quarterly Check-Up: 2Q26

Research evidence excerpt

CHRD: Quarterly Check-Up: 2Q26

RBC Capital Markets, LLC

Scott Hanold (Analyst)

(512) 708-6354, scott.hanold@rbccm.com

Samuel Cox (Senior Associate)

(512) 708-6309, samuel.cox@rbccm.com

Octavian Jordan (AVP)

(212) 618-3012, octavian.jordan@rbccm.com

July 8, 2026

Chord Energy Corporation Outperform

NASDAQ: CHRD; USD 116.84RESEARCH Quarterly Check-Up: 2Q26 Price Target USD 180.00

Our view: Operations remain largely on track and 2Q26 results should Scenario Analysis* be slightly better than guidance. We expect shareholder returns to

move to a 75+% payout starting in 3Q26 with leverage below target Downside Current Price Upside

levels. Key investor discussions/debates are timing for capital efficiency Scenario Price Target Scenario

improvements related to long-lateral wells, core inventory duration, 90.00 116.84 180.00 200.00

Marcellus non-op monetization potential, and future M&A opportunities. 19% 59% 76%

*Implied Total ReturnsEQUITY Key points: Key Statistics

• Our 2Q26 EPS/CFPS estimates are lower at $6.29/$14.36 following our SharesDividend:O/S (MM): 56.35.20 MarketYield: Cap (MM): 6,5784.5%

commodity price mark-to-market. We calculate a cash hedge settlements Debt to Cap: 19% Tr. 12 ROE: 7.10%

loss of $90 million. We are below the $6.52/$14.72 consensus, related Avg. Daily Volume: 813,492 3-Yr. Est. EPS Growth: 13.00%

to higher LOE and final commodity markers. LOE peaks in 2Q26 due to Dividend includes fixed, variable and special dividends. Yield based on

increased workover activity. Oil price realizations should be strong at + total estimated dividend.

$1.20/bbl, just above guidance midpoint. RBC Estimates • We model 2Q26 production at 283 Mboe/d (164 Mb/d oil), similar to FY Dec 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E

consensus.