AVAV: AVAV announces mid-term outlook highlighting 15-20% organic growth, 18-20% EBITDA margins by FY30

Research evidence excerpt

AVAV: AVAV announces mid-term outlook highlighting 15-20% organic growth, 18-20% EBITDA margins by FY30

DR award), LaserComm ($385M Space Force award), the $500M

HELMSMAN advanced R&D contract, and the FE-1 CUAS missile ($96M) provide tangible near-term revenue drivers while also

laying the groundwork for franchise growth. International revenue, which already represents 28% of FY26 revenue at $555M, is

expected to remain a meaningful growth vector as allied defense budgets expand at 12% year-over-year.

AVAV is making a front-loaded capital investment of ~$283M in FY27 (74% directed toward manufacturing capacity expansion)

to build the production infrastructure needed to meet current and future demand. The company plans to add approximately ~

$4B of incremental manufacturing capacity across key facilities in Salt Lake City, Albuquerque, Huntsville, and California, before

normalizing capex to more historical levels in subsequent years. Supply chain resilience is also highlighted as a competitive

differentiator, with 92% of parts dual-sourced and 98% procured domestically or from allied nations. We view the combination of

a well-articulated FY30 financial framework, a demonstrated track record of delivering on prior targets, and a rapidly expanding

addressable market as constructive for sentiment on AVAV shares. In our view, the key risk to monitor remains execution —

as demand converts to program awards, the ability to scale manufacturing and deliver on schedule becomes the single most

important competitive variable.

All values in USD unless otherwise noted. Priced as of prior trading day's market close, EST (unless otherwise noted).

Disseminated: Jul 8, 2026 09:17EDT; Produced: Jul 8, 2026 09:17EDT

For Required Conflicts Disclosures, see page 2