EXE: Quarterly Check-Up: 2Q26

Research evidence excerpt

EXE: Quarterly Check-Up: 2Q26

RBC Capital Markets, LLC

Scott Hanold (Analyst)

(512) 708-6354, scott.hanold@rbccm.com

Samuel Cox (Senior Associate)

(512) 708-6309, samuel.cox@rbccm.com

July 8, 2026 Outperform

NASDAQ: EXE; USD 89.56 Expand Energy Corp Price Target USD 145.00RESEARCH Quarterly Check-Up: 2Q26 Scenario Analysis*

Our view: 2Q26 operational execution was solid that should deliver results Downside Current Price Upside

slightly above consensus. EXE's cash return is more opportunistic and Scenario Price Target Scenario

based on full year FCF. Accordingly we anticipate stock buybacks at $250 60.00 89.56 145.00 165.00

million with total shareholder returns above 100% for 2Q26. Natural gas 30% 64% 87%

diffs should widen to the high-end of annual guidance, consistent with *Implied Total Returns

seasonal pricing. Key investor discussions/debates are timing for a new Key Statistics

CEO, interest in M&A, progress on commercial agreements, participation Shares O/S (MM): 239.2 Market Cap (MM): 21,425EQUITY Dividend: 2.33 Yield: 2.6% in power opportunities, and Western Haynesville acreage potential. Debt to Cap: 24% Tr. 12 ROE: 10.15%

Avg. Daily Volume: 3,764,236

Key points: 3-Yr. Est. EPS Growth: 10.00%

• Our 2Q26 EPS/CFPS estimates decreased to $1.19/$4.69 following our Dividendtotal estimatedincludesdividend.fixed, variable and special dividends. Yield based on

commodity mark-to-market, but are above the $1.10/$4.38 consensus.

Consensus likely needs a final commodity mark. RBC Estimates

• 2Q26 natural gas diffs move to the high-end of the annual guidance (~ FY Dec 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E

$0.40/Mcf) due to seasonal local price weakness. We also calculate a EPS, Ops Diluted 6.10 9.64 10.01 10.47

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