TBN: Quarterly Check-Up: 2Q26 (Fiscal 4Q26)

Research evidence excerpt

TBN: Quarterly Check-Up: 2Q26 (Fiscal 4Q26)

for exploration, development, andsuccessfully.

approvals before commercialization. This means the burden

Our price target along with the NAV upside opportunity of proof lies with the company to demonstrate the economic

support our Outperform, Speculative Risk rating. We assign a viability of developing the identified contingent resources.

Speculative Risk qualifier to the rating to reflect inherent risks

Tamboran currently has a considerably higher cost structureassociated with an early-stage E&P company with a limited

than its U.S. peers. The company intends to import andtrack record of operational performance.

employ U.S. industry practices in the Northern Territory but

Upside scenario could be hindered by the region’s limited familiarity with

Our upside scenario is $90/share or more than double the such technologies; the challenges of recruiting and training a

current market trading price. This scenario assumes full proficient workforce could also jeopardize the initiative.

success of the pilot program, BCDA LNG development, and an

Successfully executing Tamboran’s business plan hinges onEast Coast pipeline development.

securing midstream contracts at favorable terms to supply

Downside scenario its natural gas for export or domestic delivery (Northeast

market), which is controllable by the company. Failure toOur downside of $15/share assumes more challenges in

establish such agreements could materially and adverselysecuring funding that requires additional dilution and further

affect operations and financial health.operational challenges and risks for the pilot program, BCDA

LNG development, and an East Coast pipeline development. Future activities could be contingent on sourcing additional